Marko Papic of BCA Research predicts the U.S. dollar could fall 25–50% in five years, not due to reserve status loss, but weakening U.S. economic performance. He says Trump’s tax cuts didn’t boost growth and U.S. growth expectations are overstated, making the dollar overvalued. Rate cuts are now ineffective, as borrowing depends on the long end of the yield curve. He urges focus on fiscal/trade policy and advises: “Diversify out of the dollar — diversify out of the U.S.”
